Daily market intelligence on mortgages, equity raising, investment sales, and CMBS.

Friday, 30 August 2019

Hotel Sector Seen Slowing for Rest of 2019, 2020

Growth in the hotel sector is poised to slow for the remainder of this year and into next. CBRE, which previously had predicted that revenue per available room would grow by 2 percent this year, has scaled that projection back and now expects the widely followed industry metric to grow by only 0.9 percent for the duration of the year. Blame supply and an expected economic slowdown.

Commercial Real Estate Direct Staff Report

Growth in the hotel sector is poised to slow for the remainder of this year and into next, thanks to an expected slowdown in economic growth and continued healthy additions to room supply.

CBRE, which previously had predicted that revenue per available room would grow by 2 percent this year, has scaled that projection back and now expects the widely followed industry metric to grow by only 0.9 percent for the duration of the year. It also expects RevPAR growth of 1.2 percent next year, down from its previous forecast of 1.8 percent.

The revised numbers reflect a decline in the national occupancy level, to 1.4 percent, for the rest of the year. That would compare with the 2.1 percent increase in occupancy, to 66.2 percent, during the first half of the year.

The brokerage giant expects economic growth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, to grow by 1.9 percent during the last six months of the year, down from 2.6 percent during the first half of the year. Weakness in European and Asian markets is expected to contribute to the...





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“The Weekly”

“The Weekly” is Commercial Real Estate Direct’s PDF newsletter, sent to subscribers every Friday morning. With over 100 news stories published on Commercial Real Estate Direct each week, “The Weekly” features the top stories in commercial real estate that industry participants need to know first. “The Weekly” also contains:

  • Breaking mortgage, CMBS, and REIT news

  • Quarterly league tables with rankings of B-piece buyers, book runners, and lenders

  • Industry moves and changes in “The Insider“

Data Digest

 

CMBS DELINQUENCY VOLUME

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CMBS SPECIAL SERVICING VOLUME

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Top Bookrunners Domestic, Private-Label CMBS - 2017
Investment Bank #Deals Vol$mln MktShr%
Goldman Sachs 17.59 11,819.34 13.68
JPMorgan Securities 14.52 10,968.11 12.70
Citigroup 12.04 10,012.71 11.59
Wells Fargo Securities 14.02 9,936.06 11.50
Deutsche Bank 12.55 9,879.74 11.44

 

RCA CPPI

 

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CMBS 2.0 Spreads

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Top CMBS Loan Contributors - 2017
Lender #Loans Vol$mln MktShr%
Goldman Sachs 146.89 11,719.34 13.63
JPMorgan Chase Bank 117.68 10,114.14 11.76
Deutsche Bank 198.48 9,689.97 11.27
Morgan Stanley 166.18 8,539.78 9.93
Citigroup 199.05 8,088.24 9.41

 

 

 

REITCafe

  • Challenging Retail Environment Weights on REITs
    Mixed economic news is weighing on retail markets, pushing REIT performance down in 2015. This week, the National Retail Federation announced that back-to-school spending is expected to be down 9.3% in 2015. This news came on the heels of a report from the Commerce Department stating that retail sales declined 0.3%...
     
  • US REITs Feeling Effects from Turmoil in Greece and China
    International economic forces have taken center stage this week, affecting both US stock markets and REITs. The crash in the Chinese stock market and ongoing concerns about the future of Greece in the eurozone drove markets down during the first half of the week. REITs fared better than the overall market...

  • What Does Increased Construction Mean for Apartment REITs?
    REITs so far this year have raised $17.1 billion of capital through the sale of unsecured notes, bringing the total raised over the past two and a half years to just more than $75 billion. That’s more than they raised during the previous five years. The massive volume shouldn’t be a surprise as it comes while the yield from 10-year Treasury bonds, the benchmark...
shouldn’t be a surprise as it comes while the yield from 10-year Treasury bonds, the benchmark against which most REIT’s price their bonds
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